Econometric modeling of the higher education system in Yaroslavl region

The objective of the study is to analyze the models that describe the processes, running in the education. The article concludes that currently there are important changes and new trends in the sphere of higher education in Russia: the development of higher education is carried out in the conditions of the effective use of modern information technologies. The author emphasized the analysis of the use of distance learning technologies in the higher education system, which is especially important for our country because of the vast territory, the remoteness of many regions from the centers of educational services, due to the growing high cost of these services.

The development of Internet technologies, multimedia in conjunction with the growing popularity, the Internet makes it possible to promote education to a new level. That is why today the demand for distance learning in Russia is equal, and in some universities has exceeded the demand for full-time education. In the near future distance learning will take on the main burden in the system of professional training and retraining of specialists due to its mobility, mass, availability and relative cheapness.

Also in this article the basic quantitative regularities of the market of higher education of the Yaroslavl region in relation to the economy are determined. In the article, econometric modeling is chosen as a tool for management in the field of vocational education. This is due to the fact that it is able to identify trends and patterns of changes in the indicators of education development in the region, to determine the consequences of a development strategy that contributes to the understanding of the processes taking place in the higher education system. Econometric models, used for forecasting in the education system are analyzed; their advantages and disadvantages are revealed. Some of them are disclosed in the paper on the example of modeling the system of higher education in the Yaroslavl region.

As the result of analyzing the statistical data of the regional office of Federal State Statistics Service in Yaroslavl region the following models were developed: a model that shows how the application of distance technologies in higher education is related to socio-economic indicators; the regression model of correlation between the system of higher education and the economy (GRP); the model of forecasting the number of students in different educational categories; the econometrical model of connectivity between the education expenditures and economic factors. The paper evaluates the impact of educational and demographic indicators on the education level index of the Yaroslavl region. The econometrical models, constructed in the research, represent the informational basis for modernization of regional higher education system and elaboration of social-economic strategies of the regional development. The proposed statistical tools of evaluation and forecasting education system development can be used for decision-making and planning on the regional level.

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